🏡 San Antonio Real Estate Outlook for 2026: Why the Alamo City Remains a Safe Bet

If you’re eyeing San Antonio for your next move or investment, 2026 is shaping up to be another steady and promising year, true to the city’s long history of resilience. Below we’ll explore why San Antonio continues to hold strong, from its Department of Defense–anchored economy to evolving mortgage rates and its thriving rental markets.

📜 A Look Back: San Antonio’s Longstanding Stability

San Antonio’s economy has been remarkably steady for decades, thanks largely to the Department of Defense presence that underpins local employment and growth.

Joint Base San Antonio (JBSA) is the largest military economic contributor in Texas, generating more than $55 billion annually in statewide impact. That consistent federal footprint has made San Antonio far less prone to the economic whiplash seen in other Texas metros. When other cities fluctuate with oil prices or tech cycles, San Antonio’s defense-driven base keeps the economy, and the housing market, grounded.

🪖 The Military Backbone: What Each Base Does

San Antonio proudly carries the nickname “Military City, USA,” and for good reason. The city’s network of installations supports a wide range of missions that ensure a constant flow of service members, medical trainees, and contractors, all of whom need housing.

Fort Sam Houston is known as the U.S. military’s medical training headquarters, home to the Medical Education and Training Campus (METC), graduating over 16,000 medics and technicians annually.

Lackland Air Force Base houses the Air Force’s only Basic Military Training facility, plus Security Forces and K-9 units, which means a continual rotation of personnel and visiting families.

Randolph Air Force Base focuses on pilot and instructor training (home to the 12th Flying Training Wing) and serves as headquarters for the Air Education and Training Command.

These missions create a permanent baseline of housing demand, from short-term leases for trainees to long-term rentals for stationed families, ensuring San Antonio remains one of the most consistent real estate markets in the country.

📉 2026 Mortgage Rate Predictions

The national housing market is expected to see modest relief in 2026 as mortgage rates gradually decline.

According to Fannie Mae’s 2025–2026 forecast, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is projected to average around 5.9% by the end of 2026, down from the 6.4% average expected in late 2025.

That easing, while not dramatic, will likely:

• Boost affordability for first-time buyers

• Encourage existing homeowners with sub-4% loans to re-enter the market

• Bring inventory levels closer to balance

In practical terms, San Antonio’s price-to-income ratio will remain one of the best among major Texas metros, creating opportunities for both buyers and investors who have been waiting for the right time to act.

🏠 Long-Term Rentals: Affordability, Jobs, and Durability

San Antonio consistently ranks as one of the most affordable large metros in Texas, and that affordability translates into a strong long-term rental market.

Typical rents hover around $1,400–$1,700 per month, compared to the national average of $2,000 and higher. Combined with job stability and a growing population, landlords enjoy high occupancy rates and lower tenant turnover compared to national averages.

The city’s steady job market, strengthened by healthcare, education, and military sectors, makes it a reliable choice for long-term investors who prefer consistent cash flow over volatility.

🏖️ Short-Term Rentals (STRs): The Real Numbers for 2026

Short-term rentals remain one of San Antonio’s most dynamic real estate plays, with strong performance in both downtown and suburban zones near hospitals, bases, and entertainment hubs.

According to AirDNA and AirROI data, here’s what 2025 trends suggest heading into 2026:

Occupancy Rate Ranges

• Mid-tier properties (solid location and furnishings): 40% to 60% annual occupancy

• High-tier or premium properties (prime locations, luxury amenities, professional management): 60% to 80% and higher

  • The top 10% of listings often reach 82% or higher occupancy during peak travel months.

Average Daily Rate (ADR) or Nightly Rate Ranges

• Mid-tier listings: $120 to $180 per night

• High-tier or premium listings: $180 to $300 or higher per night

• Luxury or group homes: Can exceed $400 per night during events and peak seasons

AirROI reports that top-tier listings can achieve ADRs of $213 to $314 and higher, while the citywide median sits around $151 per night, showing the clear value of strong design and professional management.

Monthly or Annual Revenue Potential

• Mid-tier homes: $2,000 to $4,000 per month, higher in spring and summer

• High-tier homes: $5,000 to $8,000 per month during peak season

• Annual range: $20,000 to $50,000 or more depending on location, reviews, and management quality

In short, San Antonio’s STR market rewards those who treat it like a business with great design, strong reviews, responsive management, and optimized pricing.

💡 The 2026 Takeaway: San Antonio Is Still a “Yes”

San Antonio continues to stand out as one of Texas’s most balanced and opportunity-rich real estate markets.

Whether you’re:

• Buying a home to put down roots

• Investing long-term for steady returns

• Entering the STR space for higher yield potential

San Antonio offers affordability, economic stability, and consistent demand, supported by military, medical, and tourism sectors that don’t slow down when markets get rocky elsewhere.

Bottom line: In 2026 and beyond, San Antonio remains a safe, smart, and steady bet for homeowners and investors alike.

Ready to chat Real Estate? My Nest San Antonio Team is always here for you!

#mynestsateam #debbiehaus #sandragonzalezrealtor #sanantoniorealestate #realestate #homebuying #homeselling #realestateinvestor

Sources

• Joint Base San Antonio economic impact & missions. AETC+4City of San Antonio+4Joint Base San Antonio+4

• Mortgage rate levels & outlook to 2026. Realtor+3AP News+3Fannie Mae+3

• Long-term rent/affordability data. Zillow+2Zillow+2

• Short-term rental performance (San Antonio). AirDNA+2AirDNA+2