🏡 2026 Texas & San Antonio Real Estate Forecast

What It Means for Buyers, Sellers, and Small Investors

Each year, we make it a point to attend housing forecast events so we can cut through the headlines and bring back what actually matters to our clients. The 2026 outlook confirmed something important: this market isn’t broken, it’s adjusting, and San Antonio continues to stand out in a really positive way.

Here’s what we learned, in plain language.

📈 Strong Job Growth Is the Foundation of Our Market

One of the biggest drivers of real estate is jobs, and this is where Texas, especially San Antonio, continues to outperform.

• U.S. job growth is around 5%• Texas job growth is closer to 12%• San Antonio job growth is around 11%.

When job growth is strong, people feel more confident making moves. It also means continued housing demand, even when interest rates feel high.

🏥 Where Are the Jobs Coming From?

San Antonio’s growth isn’t coming from one single industry, which is a big reason our market has stayed resilient.

The top growing sectors right now include health care and education, professional and business services, and construction and skilled trades. These are steady, long-term jobs, not short-term trends, and they support consistent housing demand across price points.

💰 San Antonio’s Economy Is Still Growing

Another reassuring takeaway is that San Antonio is projected to continue seeing positive GDP growth going into 2026. In simple terms, our local economy is expanding, not shrinking.

This matters because real estate markets tend to struggle when local economies slow down. Right now, that’s not what we’re seeing here.

📉 What’s Really Happening with Interest Rates?

This is the question we hear most often.

Mortgage rates are expected to remain fairly steady in the low 6% range. While two additional Federal Reserve rate cuts are possible, mortgage rates do not move exactly in sync with the Fed.

In other words, we’re not expecting a sudden drop back to 3% or 4% rates anytime soon. We are closely monitoring federal housing and economic decisions, but the current expectation is stability rather than major change.

The focus right now should be less about timing the rate perfectly and more about whether the monthly payment works for you.

🏗️ Builders Are Still Offering Incentives

New construction has been very active, and there’s a reason for that.

Builders are using incentives like rate buydowns and closing cost assistance to make deals work for buyers. Prices aren’t dropping dramatically, but incentives are helping manage monthly payments.

This has created real opportunities, especially for buyers who are flexible on location or floor plan.

🏠 What About Pre-Owned Homes?

Pre-owned homes are still selling, but the rules have changed.

Overpricing is no longer working. Buyers are more payment conscious and selective. Homes that are priced correctly and presented well are still moving, while overpriced homes are sitting longer and often require price adjustments.

This is no longer a test the market environment. Accuracy matters.

🤔 Buyer Uncertainty Is the Biggest Hurdle

One of the biggest themes discussed was buyer uncertainty. Many people are waiting for the perfect moment, perfect rates, perfect timing, perfect clarity.

The reality is this. The right time to buy or sell is when you are personally ready and when the monthly payment makes and timing make sense for your life.

Markets will always change. Personal readiness matters more than headlines.

🧠 Final Thoughts

San Antonio continues to stand out as one of the most affordable major cities in Texas. That affordability, paired with strong job growth and a growing economy, keeps our market attractive for buyers, sellers, and small investors.

This is a more thoughtful market. One that rewards good data, realistic expectations, and a clear plan.

If you’re thinking about buying, selling, or investing, We are always happy to talk through the numbers and help you decide what makes the most sense for you. No pressure, just clarity 🤍

Ready when you are. Contact My Nest San Antonio and let's get started.